Let’s say there are a group of students who have never seen a Dinosaur. These students are very naive and have no idea how this animal looks…! Our intention is to train these students to help them identify a Dinosaur. What we do is assign individual tasks to each of…

Part II : https://tulsipatro29.medium.com/forecasting-ii-67658098ace7 Part I : https://tulsipatro29.medium.com/an-introduction-to-forecasting-5d293c6c9f5f Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing is used to weight data from previous time periods with exponentially decreasing importance in the forecast. …

Smoothing Techniques In the last blog, we had discussed about the error metrics like MAD, MSE which helps us to test our model accuracy based on error rates. (Last blog : https://tulsipatro29.medium.com/an-introduction-to-forecasting-5d293c6c9f5f ) Here, let’s start discussing about the techniques available to forecast time-series data that are stationary (no trend or seasonal effects). These…

Forecasting, the art or science of predicting the future, is used in the decision making process to help business people reach conclusions about buying, selling, producing, hiring and many other actions. Time-series data are the data gathered on a given characteristic over a period of time at regular intervals. The technique…

Why is it important to understand the assumptions of Linear Regression..? ANSCOMBE’S QUARTET A set of four different data sets that look completely distinctive from each other but had the same regression line. [ y = 0.5x + 3 ] They also had the same mean for both x and y…

The concept of Conditional Probability forms the basis of Bayes Theorem. Bayes Theorem forms the concept of Naive Bayes Classifier. A simple formulation of Conditional Probability How do we read this above equation…? Suppose we have two events A and B. Finding out the probability of A, given that event B…

Conditional Probability forms the basis of Bayes’ Theorem. The formula for Bayes’ Theorem Let’s try to understand how do we derive the above formula, Consider we have two events A and B. And we have two conditions : P ( A | B ) : probability of A given that B has…

Correlation coefficient is a ratio which defines the relationship between two random variables. For example, if we are trying to find a correlation between x and y variable. …

The first time I looked at a Confusion matrix I was actually confused. In Spite of learning it in the class almost every time, I could never get the knack of it.The words “True Positive”, “False Positive”, “Type I and Type II error” were always confusing.Finally …